SUN DEC 14 2025-theGBJournal| The African Development Bank has published a new report which presents the pathway through which Artificial Intelligence (AI) can deliver transformational gains for Africa’s economies.
AfDB, in the report, ”Africa’s AI Productivity Gain: Pathways to Labour Efficiency, Economic Growth and Inclusive Transformation,” suggests that if developed and deployed inclusively, AI could generate up to US$1 trillion in
additional GDP by 2035, representing close to one-third of the continent’s current output.
The lead authors, editors and knowledge partners of the report believes strongly that Artificial intelligence (AI) offers a generational opportunity to shift from incremental gains to exponential outcomes.
”With the right guardrails and investments, AI could help the continent leapfrog into new levels of efficiency, job creation, and competitiveness. This is a realistic opportunity grounded in Africa’s demographic advantage, growing digital capacity, and sectoral reform,” they said.
Africa’s GDP is expected to reach US $4.23 trillion by 2035 (in constant 2015 dollars), if the continent stays on its current trajectory, defined by steady improvements in infrastructure, trade, and services.
The report notes that this ”baseline” assumes incremental reforms and a continuation of current investment levels.
”While this path is stable, it is not transformative. It does not fully account for the continent’s expanding labour force, nor does it strengthen fiscal capacity or unlock the deep reserves of underused productivity across sectors.”
According to the report, the AI dividend is not given, but it is attainable with concerted effort and coordination. If realised, this dividend could translate into:
+ US $1 trillion GDP by 2035
-US $150 billion new tax annually
-24% uplift over baseline GDP
-35-40 million digital jobs
-300 million youth integrated into workforce
According to the report the AI dividend is expected to be concentrated in select high-impact sectors, rather than spread evenly across Africa’s economy.
Analysis identified five priority sectors:
—agriculture (20%) with estimated uplift of US $200 billion
-wholesale and retail (14%) US $140 billion estimated uplift
-manufacturing and Industry 4.0 (9%) estimated uplift US $90 billion,
-finance and inclusion (8%)US $80 billion in estimated uplift
-health and life sciences (7%) uplift estimated at US $70 billion—
These sectors together are projected to capture 58% of the total AI gains, or approximately $580 billion by 2035.
The sectors also represent both economic scale and inclusive development value.
According to the report, AI adoption within them can enhance food security, reduce health service gaps, expand financial inclusion, and raise productivity in informal economies.
The report asserts that realising the potential of AI depends on five interlinked enablers: data, compute, skills, trust, and capital. Reliable and interoperable data forms the foundation for AI insights, while scalable compute infrastructure ensures solutions can be deployed efficiently across the continent.
It notes that a skilled workforce is essential to develop, implement, and maintain AI systems, and trust—built through governance, and regulatory frameworks—underpins adoption.
The report also notes that the enablers, together with adequate capital investment to de-risk innovation and accelerate deployment, would “foster a cycle of AI-driven growth.”
The report also outlines a three-phase roadmap toward Africa’s AI readiness: ignition (2025-27), consolidation (2028-31) and scale (2032-35).
”Achieving early milestones by 2026 will set Africa’s AI flywheel in motion,” said Ousmane Fall, Director of Industrial and Trade Development at the Bank. “Africa’s challenge is no longer what to do — it is doing it on time.”
Looking ahead to 2035, AI is expected to add US $25 trillion to the global economy.
Africa’s share is set at 4%. This is a fairshare scenario that reflects a moderate but ambitious uplift from Africa’s current position, the continent today accounts for just under 3% of global GDP.
The 4% allocation assumes that Africa accelerates progress across five critical enablers: data governance, compute infrastructure, skills, trust frameworks, and capital access.
It is not based on parity with high-income economies but reflects the continent’s potential for productivity catch-up if decisive action is taken.
-Establishing open and well-governed data systems
-Creating scalable, affordable compute infrastructure
-Developing strong pipelines of skilled professionals
-Putting in place trust and safety frameworks
-Securing sufficient funding to scale proven AI projects
”We have set out the key actions in this report, identifying the areas where initial implementation should be focused,” said Nicholas Williams, Manager of the ICT Operations Division at the Bank.
”The Bank is ready to release investment to support these actions. We expect the private sector and the government to utilize this investment to ensure we achieve the identified productivity gains and create quality jobs.”
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