…Global exploration and production (E&P) capex is also forecast to reach ~$504 billion by 2026, with Africa contributing about $41 billion
WED OCT 01 2025-theGBJournal| Africa’s oil and gas production is expected to reach 11.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboe/d) by 2026, with Nigeria at the forefront in terms of remaining recoverable resources, mainly located in the Niger Delta region, according to a new industry report, the State of African Energy 2026 Outlook Report, released Tuesday by The African Energy Chamber (AEC) in partnership with S&P Global Commodity Insights.
The report suggests that growing production will depend on a number of factors including access to opportunities, sub-surface success and the ability of host governments to adjust terms and conditions to changing investor appetites.
Global exploration and production (E&P) capex is also forecast to reach ~$504 billion by 2026, with Africa contributing about $41 billion, driven by expenditure in offshore prospects, including Mozambique, Nigeria and Angola.
According to the report, African investors may benefit from the global rig market’s surplus capacity and declining rates, as low day rates are projected to persist through 2027, potentially helping move a raft of projects forward depending on project economics, contractual terms and risk.
As explorers look to make needle moving discoveries, Africa’s abundance of immature and frontier basins are increasingly attracting exploration drilling with
potentially game-changing high impact wells planned in countries such as South Africa, Namibia and Côte d’Ivoire.
Ongoing and planned licensing rounds across Africa provide significant opportunities for foreign investors over the coming year, offering onshore and offshore acreage in both mature and frontier basins.
The report notes that as part of renewed efforts to attract investment, the trend toward more favourable terms continues, both through targeted incentives as well as broadly revised contract terms.
In the first half of 2025, global upstream M&A reached $51 billion, with Africa’s deals totalling $2.7 billion, notably including Vitol Group’s $1.65 billion acquisition of Eni assets in Côte d’Ivoire and the Republic of Congo: That trend reflects the divestment of major oil companies from mature assets into markets with significant upside, allowing independent African producers to acquire these assets and grow their portfolios.
According to the report, above-ground risks to E&P in Africa vary from political change and activism to insecurity and shifting investor landscapes.
”However, host governments are generally offering improved regulatory and contractual frameworks to promote new investment, often coinciding with the release of blocks via bid rounds: Algeria, Angola, Nigeria and Libya are amongst those to have taken this approach.”
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